What’s New in Author Earnings?

I will return to the series on writing myths next week (probably) but I wanted to comment on the latest report from Author Earnings while the news was fresh. As many of you know, the people at AE have been using computerized data-gathering and number-crunching programs to collate book sales data, particularly at Amazon. Since Amazon never releases official sales figures, this data is invaluable. Every single time AE has released findings since it began over two years ago, it has shown indie publishing sales on the rise.

Until now.

It’s true. In the October report, for the first time ever, AE data indicates that the indie market share has declined. Not drastically, but significantly. Basically back to where it was in early 2015. Traditional publishers have gained some ground in the eBook arena, and Amazon’s publishing program continues to grow.

First, please note that these figures pertain to market share–not how much money is earned by authors. Authors at traditional houses take a much smaller royalty percentage, so the two are far from the same. Authors at small and medium-sized publishing houses take home about the same amount of money as authors at traditional houses (in the aggregate). This amazing. Two years ago it would have been inconceivable.

But it has declined since the last report.

How can this be? Everybody’s got a theory. Early speculation was that the decline was attributable to traditional publishers finally lowering their eBook prices, but this turns out to not be possible–because they haven’t. A more likely explanation is that the Big Five, and many small and medium-sized publishers as well–have started adopting the marketing strategies and tactics pioneered by indie authors. That would include price pulsing, discount newsletters, Facebook ads, retailer-specific metadata, and similar tricks. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I suppose. Especially when it works.

I think this explanation may be correct. Do you get the Bookbub daily newsletter? I do. It has a huge distribution list and it offers deeply discounted books, usually 99 cents or perhaps $1.99. I’ve bought way too many books because of this newsletter. (AE says Bookbub may be responsible for 5-6% of Amazon’s total eBook sales.) But I’ve also noticed how its content has changed. Originally, the books promoted by Bookbub were mostly indie books. These days, books from traditional publishers, who are presumably willing and able to pay more, take up an increasingly large share of the newsletter. By stealing indie thunder, they’ve managed to halt their sales decline. At least for now.

This doesn’t change anything. We are still fortunate to live in an age in which authors have options, not only publishing options but sales venue options. Your decision about how and where to publish should be based upon your book, your goals, and your personality. Digitalization and online sales have been the great equalizer and a great friend to many indie authors. Since the Old Guard has learned to imitate the first batch of tricks, indies will have to develop new ones.

I’m betting they do.

Author Earnings: http://authorearnings.com/report/october-2016/

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