Are Ebook Sales Declining? Do Indie Titles Dominate the Market?

The publishing industry has always suffered from poor data control. Accurate sales information has been hard to come by, in part because no one is gathering it systematically, and in part because publishers and Amazon typically do not release raw sales data. As a result, we currently have a split of authority. The legacy publishers are claiming that ebook sales are declining, while independent publishers claim they dominate the market. Who’s right?

I will not pretend to be an expert data analyst. Rarely have I heard anyone wax nostalgically about their college Statistics class. Personally, I’d rather have a colonoscopy, or root canal, or watch Toddlers and Tiaras. But a few facts are clear: First, the traditional publishers’ claims are based upon AAP (Association of American Publishers) stats, meaning the data contributors are traditional print publishers, which of course skewers the outcome. Second, Authors Earnings has tried to fill the gap, using sophisticated computer analysis to divine Amazon sales, probably imperfectly, as they have a clear bias toward independent publishers. Third, Amazon is getting rich while Barnes & Noble is going broke, and most of Amazon’s sales do not relate to print books.

Here’s another fact: Amazon paid $140 million dollars in Kindle Unlimited (subscription book borrowing) payouts directly to authors in 2015, and not a penny of that is included in the AAP stats. Does that affect the bottom line? Obviously. Add in that plus traditional ebook sales and you have the tail wagging the publishing dog.

Personally, I don’t see it as a competition, so I don’t care who’s “winning.” If you can get a traditional publishing deal and you want to travel that path, go for it. But I’m pleased there are alternatives for entrepreneurial sorts who don’t want to wait or don’t want to work for someone else. Last year, ebook sales at Amazon generated $1,756,000 PER DAY in author earnings, and more than half of that went to independent authors. Self-publishing is not the only option, but for the first time ever, it is a viable option.

For those interested in delving deeper into the battling methodologies and earnings reports, here are a few links:

Authors Earnings: http://authorearnings.com

Publishing Industry Rebuttal: http://ow.ly/Yj670

Looking Back on 2015–and Ahead to 2016

Everyone is saying that the two biggest trends in publishing for 2015 were adult coloring books and the surge in audiobook sales. If you’ve been reading the Red Sneaker newsletter for long, though, you knew audiobooks were hot a long time ago–and since you write books with words, you may not care much about coloring books.

Here are some more useful predictions for 2016:

  1. Two Worlds, One Family. The articles declaring that “print is winning” or “ebooks have stalled” are based upon sales data from the big NYC publishers–excluding Amazon and independent publishing sales. If you look at the whole picture, ebooks are huge and getting huger. Penguin’s recent decision to fire dozens of employees is probably due to the failure of their ebook program. The Big Five fought for agency pricing, got it, and now that they’ve raised the prices on their ebooks, the books don’t sell as well. Is this a surprise? No. But bear this in mind: according to Author Earnings, 45% of all books sold by Amazon Kindle are independently published. In other words, there are now two parallel markets, both almost equal in size. One is traditional Big Pub, which dominates print. The other is nontraditional Indie Pub, which dominates ebooks, primarily with adult genre fiction.
  2. Children’s Publishing is Poised to Explode. Audiobooks will continue to grow, but what you may not know is that children’s publishing has provided the biggest growth sector for traditional publishers for the past 3-5 years. Last year, the US market children’s book market grew by 13%. The Big Five will expand on this, not only in book publishing, but also by seeking media and licensing deals based upon children’s books. If you’ve got an idea for a children’s book, this is the time to market it.
  3. Rights Management Becomes Critical. As the Big Five become more dependent upon big authors, licenses, and multimedia partnerships, they will attempt to retain every right possible. Too often, authors have been willing to sign away rights for the thrill of getting a book in print. This has always been a mistake and will become even more so in the future. Never sign away rights unless you’re getting something of value in return. Never sign away rights unless there’s a term limit clause or a fair provision for the eventual reversion of your rights.