What’s Really Going On in Publishing

If you keep up with the publishing “news,” you may be confused by recent contradictory indicators. Some sources claim that eBook sales are declining, but any popular-fiction authors who’ve looked at their royalty statements lately sees a different story. The NYTimes consistently suggests that Amazon is the Antichrist and destroying literature, but a growing number of independent authors credit Amazon for the ability to work without a corporate overlord. Who’s right?

Good numbers are hard to come by in the book world, because the Big Five  play their cards close and Amazon won’t release sales figures at all. As I’ve mentioned before, I believe the statistics coming from AuthorEarnings.com are, while perhaps not perfect, the most reliable statistics we have. Why? Because by using computer data-gathering bugs to collect sales information, they take into account Amazon sales, which is currently more than 50% of all books sold in the US and about 75% of all eBooks. Those articles about eBook sales declining are based upon data from the AAP or Neilsen–so they include the Big Five but not Amazon. EBook sales are declining at the Big Five, because they’ve raised their prices, which you’ll recall they fought hard for the right to do. At Amazon, the far bigger share of the pie, eBook sales and independent authors are increasing.

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So gross unit sales are rising, but…

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…the books that are selling are increasingly those from independent authors, not the Big Five. The Big Five have (somewhat) larger gross profits, due to the higher prices, but of course most of that money does not end up in the hands of authors:

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As a group, independent authors are taking home more money than Big Five authors. Remember, an independent author can claim a 70% royalty at Amazon, whereas a traditionally published author will get somewhere between 4-15%. So you can sell far fewer books but still take home more money.

I urge you to visit AuthorEarnings.com, read the report, and draw your own conclusions. Read May 2016 Author Earnings Report: the Definitive Million-Title Study of US Author Earnings.

 

Use Preorders to Crack the Bestseller Lists

Traditional publishers have long known the advantages of taking preorders. Did you realize that in most cases, the New York Times bestseller list number are based upon preorders rather than actual sales? True. It’s based on how many copies go into the store, which can sometimes be wildly different from the number that are purchased in the store, which has led many to question the validity of the list.

Up till now, taking preorders has not been an option for independent publishers, but that has changed. Amazon’s KDP platform for self-publishing eBooks now permits you to take orders for a book before the launch date. The advantage? When that launch date finally arrives, you’ll get credit for not only that day’s sales but all the preorders as well, and that extra boost can propel you to the top of the list (especially if you have carefully and strategically chosen the list when you categorized your book). Although iBooks and Kobo have done this for a while, this is a recent policy change for Amazon.

Does it work? Last year, almost two-thirds of the top 200 bestsellers distributed by Smashwords took preorders (though overall, only one book in eight at Smashwords took preorders). It would appear preorders get you on bestsellers lists.

This won’t happen by accident. You’ll have to work Facebook and other social media to encourage people to preorder. Presumably you’ve posted a lot about the book in advance, building interest and anticipation, before you actually offer it as a preorder. But once the book is available, every post about it should contain a link to the preorder site.

If you really want to spur preorders, the obvious play is to offer a lower price. 50% off for preorders, but the price jumps on release day.

Don’t start taking preorders until the book is a done deal, finished, uploaded, perfect and ready to roll. A book not ready on the release date will not only not get you on the bestseller list, it will be a personal embarrassment and a business disaster.

Get your superfans, your near and dear, to post positive reviews as soon as possible, preferably on the release date or, where possible, earlier. That can only help push you up the list.

Update the back matter in your previous eBooks to tell readers about the new book with a hyperlink to the preorder site. You could even lower prices or pulse prices to get more people reading the older books–and seeing the promotion for the new one.

And then? Plan an agressive marketing campaign that covers the entire week of the release. How? That will be the topic of next week’s blog.

Should You Pay for Reviews?

I’m guessing your first-glance response was, Of course not. I don’t even need to read this. I would never do such a thing.

But then again…everything else pertaining to publishing has changed in the past few years. And we all know some shoppers will only consider a book if it has 4+ stars. And it’s hard to get people to review your books…

You’ve probably read about Amazon’s discovery that some entrepreneurs had multiple Amazon accounts and were using them to upload positive reviews bought and paid for. Amazon tried to crack down on that, as well as reviews from spouses, close friends, etc., whenever detectible. But a lot of perfectly legal review sales still take place–from respected and venerable sources.

Publishers Weekly has a program called PW Select. For $149, PW will run the cover, a synopsis, and will consider the book for a full review. Blue Ink Review specializes in self-published titles, reviewed for $395. Kirkus Reviews will offer “professional, unbiased book reviews for self-publishers” in 7-9 weeks for $425. And if you’ve spent much time on Amazon book pages, you know that Kirkus reviews are often pulled out and featured prominently above all the other reviews as if they were official editorial content.

None of these sources promises glowing reviews, but of course, they wouldn’t be in business long if they were selling lousy ones. Quoting successful self-published writer Tamara Linse, “I actually have done paid reviews for all three books with PW Select, Kirkus, and IndieReader. I’ve definitely gotten some good publicity from it. I got a starred review from Publishers Weekly…” Linse essentially writes literary short fiction, and the success of the book that got the starred review led to her getting an offer of representation from a major literary agency. Another author credited his paid-for Kirkus review with getting him a film option.

As always, when self-publishing you must make your decisions for yourself. But with about half a million self-published titles coming out each year, you must seriously consider any option that will draw attention to yours. Blue Ink has now published over 5000 reviews of self-published titles since they started in 2009. They must be doing something people find valuable.

 

Traditional Publishing or Self-Publishing? The Definitive Answer

The next book in the Red Sneaker Writers Series, Excellent Editing, goes on sale Friday (May 13). Toward the end of the book, I discuss the possible avenues for publishing your perfectly edited work. I review the pros and cons of each route and how ultimately your decision must be based upon your goals, your personality, and the book itself. I’m not going to repeat here what I wrote in the book, but I will augment it in light of two interesting perspectives that arose this week.

For the first time ever, the most popular American financial publication, Forbes, has weighed in on this question. Unsurprisingly, the analysis centers around money. What did surprise me was how the article made the decision contingent upon whether you’re writing fiction or nonfiction.

Forbes author Nick Morgan argued that the bottom line is: “Fiction writers should probably self-publish, since they’re going to have to market the book themselves,” because the odds of a traditional publisher putting any significant marketing muscle behind your book is minuscule. If you self-publish, your royalty rate will be 70-80%, whereas in traditional publishing it will be 4-15%, perhaps rising to 20% for eBooks. Do the math.

Nonfiction authors approaching traditional publishers will be asked if they have a “platform,” which is just a fancy way of asking if you have a way of selling a lot of books, like a cult following or students required to buy your textbook. If you have that, you might think you don’t need a publisher. But Forbes argues that you do need a traditional publisher if you want to use the book as “a calling card to do something else.” If you’re trying to establish your expertise in a field, or want speaking gigs on the professional circuit, the imprimatur of a publishing house increases your prestige and credibility. Speaking bureaus typically aren’t interested in self-published authors.

Of course, you’ll still make more money per unit self-publishing.

Also this week, Hugh Howey, perhaps America’s best-known self-published author, titled his blog “Self-Publishing Has Never Been Easier.” Of late, some have argued that self-publishing was only profitable if you got in early, during the “gold-rush” phase. He argues just the opposite. It’s easier now and more potentially profitable than ever.

Helpful? Okay, perhaps I exaggerated when I called this the “definitive solution.” But it’s always good to have the best data when you’re making a difficult decision.

Did I mention that Excellent Editing comes out on Friday?

Hugh Howey’s Blog: http://www.hughhowey.com/it-has-never-been-easier/

Forbes Magazine article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/nickmorgan/2016/05/05/which-is-better-self-publishing-or-traditional-publishing/#502f172f29dc

 

Using Social Media to Generate Interest In Your Books

I know many of you find social media bewildering. Why do so many Americans devote so much time to it? Do they not have real friends? Wouldn’t they rather be reading a good book than reading someone’s post about lunch? And yet, social media consumes the hours and days of many, and it’s not just young people. Authors use it to promote their work.

Let me give you a dramatic example. Two poets, 2014. Louise Gluck won the National Book Award. Afterward, her new poetry book sold 20,000 copies, considered a huge success for poetry. Tyler Knott Gregson has won no big awards. But he has built a following by posting his poems on Instagram and Tumblr. Result? That same year, his new poetry book had a first printing of 100,000 copies.

Thank you, social media, for keeping poetry alive. (Lang Leav, another online poet, has sold over 300,000 copies of her self-published poetry books. Her break? Khloe Kardashian posted one of her poems on Instagram.)

WARNING: Don’t let social media consume more than 20% of your working day. Writing comes first. Following the pattern of celebrities, some writers have hired assistants to handle their social media posts. (Did you really think that was Britney Spears tweeting all day long?) Others use programs like Hootsuite to write their posts in advance at a convenient time.

You should pick and choose the social media outlets that are worth your time. The “wine chart” above, created by Chris Syme, explains how the leading media are used so you can make intelligent decisions.

Facebook: I like wine. 71% of all online adults post here to talk about their likes and dislikes. You can post information about your work, but you will put people off if you constantly post commercials to your “friends.” Vary the content. You can link directly to Amazon.

Twitter: I am drinking #wine now. Only 23% of the adult online population tweets, mostly the young. And there’s no way to sell anything here. Some authors have generated interest in their work by serializing fiction in successive tweets.

YouTube: Here’s my video on choosing wine. The second-most-used search engine on the Net. People go to learn or to be entertained, not to chat. Book “trailers” were trendy for a while, but ultimately did not spur sales. If you have a “how-to” video that relates to your book, that might work.

Instagram: Pictures of me drinking wine. Twitter with pics. Smaller percentages and even younger users. Kids think it’s a hipper alternative to Facebook, but it is in fact quietly owned by Facebook. A book cover might do you some good, but the Comments do not yet allow you to post URLs, so you can’t link to Amazon.

LinkedIn: Hire me, the wine expert. Great for nonfiction writers selling their expertise. Less so for fiction writers. Older demographic. Hosts a publishing platform that can link to your webpage.

Pinterest: Here’s my collection of wine stuff. 31% of online adults, primarily women, post here. Basically, you create an online visual catalog of your work. Poetry circulates easily because a poem can fit in a single pic, but fiction could work too.

To learn more about Hootsuite: https://hootsuite.com

Is Everything We Thought We Knew About Publishing a Lie?

Conspiracy theories may be common with Mulder and Scully, aliens, the Illuminati, and Bigfoot, but we don’t often get them in the erudite world of books and publishing. This week, however, we did.

As you are probably aware, in 2014-2015, Amazon engaged in a negotiation showdown with Traditional Publishing, most prominently Hachette. The common view was that the Big 5 wanted the right to set prices for their products when sold on Amazon–agency pricing. Everyone thought the outcome was that the Big 5 won the right, increased their prices, and made more money.

This week, several stories broke suggesting that everything we thought we knew was wrong.

Mike Shatzkin is a prominent publishing analyst who writes the Idea Logical blog. Based on conversations with publishing executives and even a source at the Department of Justice, Shatzkin claimed that although the Big 5 publishers wanted agency pricing in 2010, by 2015 they realized it was not to their advantage but were forced to accept it–by Amazon.          “[T]he big publishers had no choice about sticking with agency. Amazon insisted that they stick with agency.” Amazon also wanted and got a more favorable split of revenues.

Another analyst, Phillip Jones, agrees. Quoting other industry sources, Jones says that since Amazon dominates the eBook market, allowing publishers to overprice their books was a smart strategy that shifted sales from Big 5 eBooks to Amazon eBooks, allowing Amazon to rapidly grow its self-publishers and Kindle Unlimited market. Conversely, another blog, The Passive Voice, says this “revelation” is just propaganda designed to smooth over an imminent publisher reversal on agency pricing.

Perhaps even more startling is Shatzkin’s claim that the articles claiming “print sales rising in the US” last year was simply based on the fad for adult coloring books–which some people wouldn’t even consider books.

I will admit that Shatzkin’s “revelation” makes sense to me. I expected Amazon to fight to the death for what they wanted and to have the clout to win. Instead Amazon seemed to grant agency pricing to any publisher that wanted it. The story makes more sense if Amazon wanted the Big 5 to set their prices (higher) and focused instead on revenue stream. In any case, one thing seems clear–the agency pricing that seemed like such a must-have before looks like an albatross now.

What do you think?

See the debate continue at Idea Logical: http://www.idealog.com

Nate Hoffelder: http://ow.ly/Z7XRh

Philip Jones: http://ow.ly/Z7XNe

Are Ebook Sales Declining? Do Indie Titles Dominate the Market?

The publishing industry has always suffered from poor data control. Accurate sales information has been hard to come by, in part because no one is gathering it systematically, and in part because publishers and Amazon typically do not release raw sales data. As a result, we currently have a split of authority. The legacy publishers are claiming that ebook sales are declining, while independent publishers claim they dominate the market. Who’s right?

I will not pretend to be an expert data analyst. Rarely have I heard anyone wax nostalgically about their college Statistics class. Personally, I’d rather have a colonoscopy, or root canal, or watch Toddlers and Tiaras. But a few facts are clear: First, the traditional publishers’ claims are based upon AAP (Association of American Publishers) stats, meaning the data contributors are traditional print publishers, which of course skewers the outcome. Second, Authors Earnings has tried to fill the gap, using sophisticated computer analysis to divine Amazon sales, probably imperfectly, as they have a clear bias toward independent publishers. Third, Amazon is getting rich while Barnes & Noble is going broke, and most of Amazon’s sales do not relate to print books.

Here’s another fact: Amazon paid $140 million dollars in Kindle Unlimited (subscription book borrowing) payouts directly to authors in 2015, and not a penny of that is included in the AAP stats. Does that affect the bottom line? Obviously. Add in that plus traditional ebook sales and you have the tail wagging the publishing dog.

Personally, I don’t see it as a competition, so I don’t care who’s “winning.” If you can get a traditional publishing deal and you want to travel that path, go for it. But I’m pleased there are alternatives for entrepreneurial sorts who don’t want to wait or don’t want to work for someone else. Last year, ebook sales at Amazon generated $1,756,000 PER DAY in author earnings, and more than half of that went to independent authors. Self-publishing is not the only option, but for the first time ever, it is a viable option.

For those interested in delving deeper into the battling methodologies and earnings reports, here are a few links:

Authors Earnings: http://authorearnings.com

Publishing Industry Rebuttal: http://ow.ly/Yj670

Is Kindle Scout For You?

Kindle Scout is a “crowdsourcing” book selection program Amazon launched last year. Readers vote on unpublished titles based on excerpts, and in return receive free copies of the books they voted for—if those books are selected for publication. Amazon considers the number of “nominations” each book receives, but never reveals the basis for their final selections.

My novel The Game Master was one of the first Kindle Scout selections, January 2015. Writers continue to ask me if I think Kindle Scout would be a good idea for their book. That all depends on the book, your personality, and your overall career plan. Adult genre fiction works best on Kindle Scout. Some people like marketing better than others–but all writers must deal with it. And you should understand that Kindle Scout is a starting place, not a ending place. It should be part of a larger plan, not a replacement for having a plan.

To make Kindle Scout work, you should:

  1. Spend the month your book is up relentlessly working for nominations. You must get a dynamite cover. You must work social media. Tell everyone you know, everyone you see. Call in all markers.
  2. After your campaign ends, Amazon sends everyone who nominated your book a message telling them whether it was selected. The email includes a thank-you message written by you. Use that note to make a good impression, and in the event that your book isn’t selected, to tell people how they can obtain your book elsewhere.
  3. Amazon provides great feedback on the people who voted for your book.  You can see where page views come from, the number of page views, when your book was hot and trending. Use this! Knowledge is power. Even if your book is not selected, you just obtained great analytical information to guide the promotion of your book.

Looking Back on 2015–and Ahead to 2016

Everyone is saying that the two biggest trends in publishing for 2015 were adult coloring books and the surge in audiobook sales. If you’ve been reading the Red Sneaker newsletter for long, though, you knew audiobooks were hot a long time ago–and since you write books with words, you may not care much about coloring books.

Here are some more useful predictions for 2016:

  1. Two Worlds, One Family. The articles declaring that “print is winning” or “ebooks have stalled” are based upon sales data from the big NYC publishers–excluding Amazon and independent publishing sales. If you look at the whole picture, ebooks are huge and getting huger. Penguin’s recent decision to fire dozens of employees is probably due to the failure of their ebook program. The Big Five fought for agency pricing, got it, and now that they’ve raised the prices on their ebooks, the books don’t sell as well. Is this a surprise? No. But bear this in mind: according to Author Earnings, 45% of all books sold by Amazon Kindle are independently published. In other words, there are now two parallel markets, both almost equal in size. One is traditional Big Pub, which dominates print. The other is nontraditional Indie Pub, which dominates ebooks, primarily with adult genre fiction.
  2. Children’s Publishing is Poised to Explode. Audiobooks will continue to grow, but what you may not know is that children’s publishing has provided the biggest growth sector for traditional publishers for the past 3-5 years. Last year, the US market children’s book market grew by 13%. The Big Five will expand on this, not only in book publishing, but also by seeking media and licensing deals based upon children’s books. If you’ve got an idea for a children’s book, this is the time to market it.
  3. Rights Management Becomes Critical. As the Big Five become more dependent upon big authors, licenses, and multimedia partnerships, they will attempt to retain every right possible. Too often, authors have been willing to sign away rights for the thrill of getting a book in print. This has always been a mistake and will become even more so in the future. Never sign away rights unless you’re getting something of value in return. Never sign away rights unless there’s a term limit clause or a fair provision for the eventual reversion of your rights.